A Warmer Arctic in a Cold War – The Effects of Climate Change on Arctic Security Policy

The heating of the Arctic occurs considerably faster than the global average heating. The security policy consequences of this will be dire, both on the global and regional Arctic level. This report analyses these trends and their consequences for Norwegian national security. Compared to other regions, the Arctic region has received limited attention in global security discourse, while Arctic states – particularly Russia – have long considered it a vital geopolitical region. Prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Arctic was largely shielded from international tensions. During and after the Cold War, regional and local cooperation continued despite growing tensions. Both the mounting tensions and the erosion of Arctic Exceptionalism will be exacerbated by climate change. Numerous actors with diverse agendas operate in the Arctic. At the institutional level, NATO and the EU have become increasingly active in Arctic questions during the past few years. All the Arctic states, bar Russia, are members of at least one of these organisations. The relationship between NATO, the EU, and their members on one side, and Russia on the other has deteriorated, especially after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These two groups share very few goals and ambitions for the Arctic region. When tensions between them increase, Arctic stability suffers. Climate change in the Arctic will affect military capabilities and operational patterns. Reduction in ground frost, lower soil bearing capacity, more extreme weather, less sea ice, and shorter winters will force armed forces to adapt their capabilities, operations, and exercises to new environments. The Arctic security landscape will be worsened because of climate change. As resources and trade routes become available because of climate change, international great power rivalry will increasingly manifest in the Arctic region. This trend is further amplified by the diverging aims of Arctic actors. Because of mounting international tensions, climate change, and regional Arctic trends, it is becoming more likely that Chinese revisionism, currently focused on Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the international order, will be brought into regional Arctic politics. China, a self-proclaimed ‘near Arctic state’, covets increased influence in a region in which they have established various research and commercial activities. The trends described in this report emphasise an Arctic future defined by less security, both in terms of climate change and security policy. This is a cause for concern for a small state such as Norway, which is still an important Arctic actor due to its long coastline and sovereignty over the Svalbard archipelago. Mounting tensions in the region are thus detrimental for Norwegian national security. Climate change will aggravate these tensions, both in the Arctic and in regions near NATO allies. The latter could limit allied support. Consequently, climate change will have significant effects on Norwegian national security.