Perspectives in Political Science on Cyber Operations: A Review of Key Literature

This report describes and discusses key contributions in the political science literature on the use of cyber operations as a tool of power and influence in international politics. The report is divided into literature that analyses the potential for a change in the balance of power as a result of cyber operations, cyber operations as a means of signalling intentions to other states, and the possibilities of intentional and unintentional escalation resulting from the use of cyber operations between states. Key perspectives in contributions to the literature covering these aspects can be summarised as follows: • The cyber domain constitutes a unique strategic environment. It is characterised by persistent engagement, which, by applying effects to important digital systems of the opponent, may change the balance of power and establish norms for acceptable behaviour in the domain. • A sequence or series of cyber operations, described as campaigns, may contribute to altering the balance of power between states. This means that cyber operations can accumulatively alter the balance of power. Thus, the argument goes that cyber operations should be analysed in a campaign perspective. • Cyber operations can be strategically useful, but operational trade-offs limit their actual impact. The actor must balance the intensity and scope of the effects, the time from the start of the operation to the moment the desired effect is achieved, and control over their own operation. This trade-off involves, among other things, that a shorter timeframe of the operation will result in reduced control over and effects of the operation. • The difficulty of attributing a cyber operation limits the possibilities of using this as an instrument for deterrence or coercion against another state. Additionally, the potential for coercive effects or deterrent effects is weakened by the difficulty of achieving a sufficiently strong impact using cyber operations. • Whether cyber operations affect the stability between states depends on how decision-makers perceive the situation and whether the relationship between two states is characterised by stability or instability. Perceptions and context must therefore be considered when assessing the possible consequences of cyber operations.