Assessing protection of civilians in military operations

In today’s conflicts, military forces are frequently expected to protect civilians from threats of physical violence. Successful protection is now considered important to ensure local and international legitimacy and in many cases necessary to accomplish the operation’s overall objectives. It has therefore become increasingly necessary to assess the degree to which civilians are actually being protected on the ground or not. Operations assessment is an activity that informs commanders and decision-makers on whether the intended objectives of a military operation are being achieved. In order to be useful, such assessments must measure aspects that are relevant to the particular objective or topic in question. This report deals specifically with the question of how to measure protection of civilians. When assessing protection of civilians, what is relevant depends on the nature of the threat against civilians in the first place. Successful protection of civilians is defined as having reduced the current level of threat to civilians, without causing more harm than otherwise would occur. In all situations, the greatest threats to civilians are likely to come from perpetrators that deliberately target them as part of their strategy. However, the particular ways in which civilians are targeted will vary greatly. This report therefore uses seven generic scenarios developed by the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment (FFI), which seek to capture the range of situations where civilians are faced with fundamentally different types of physical threats (GENOCIDE, ETHNIC CLEANSING, REGIME CRACKDOWN, POST-CONFLICT REVENGE, COMMUNAL CONFLICT, PREDATORY VIOLENCE, and INSURGENCY). These scenarios also describe the different outcomes that can be expected when perpetrators succeed with their violence against civilians. These expected outcomes provide a starting point against which to assess whether civilians are being protected or not. If the civilian suffering is reduced compared to what could otherwise be expected, a degree of operational success can be claimed. The question is how this can actually be measured. This report therefore outlines six different approaches to measuring protection of civilians, which can be used to identify relevant metrics depending on the particular scenario one is faced with. These are: (1) civilian casualty figures, (2) civilian behaviour, (3) perception of security, (4) territorial control, (5) delivery of humanitarian assistance, and (6) perpetrator capabilities. Particular attention is given to perpetrator capabilities, because it is the most critical factor to consider from a military perspective in all scenarios. The capabilities are those means the perpetrator actually requires to be able to implement the violence against civilians. Finally, the report explains how success in protecting civilians can be determined. It outlines a number of generic baselines against which to assess whether the threat to civilians is actually being reduced depending on the particular scenario one is faced with. Importantly, the criteria for success and what constitutes relevant information to measure will change in accordance with developments on the ground.