Waiting for the next Beslan - Russias handling of major hostage-takings

This paper discusses how Russian authorities have handled four large-scale hostage-takings: Budennovsk (1995), Kizliar/Pervomaiskoe (1996), Dubrovka (2002) and Beslan (2004). The analysis examines to what extent handling of such events has improved through organizational learning and reform, and identifies obstacles to such learning and reform in the Russian context. The main analysis focuses on handling at the operational level, but in the last chapter a summary of important aspects of the tactical handling of the cases is provided. The main conclusion of the study is that only very limited improvement can be seen. Both learning and reform seems only to a small extent to have taken place, and the efforts that have been made have often been of a rather cosmetic character. Major reasons for this are the disregard for formal offices and procedures, the self-interest of bureaucrats and security officials and institutional distrust. Similar causes to problems of handling major terrorist incidents can also be traced in other countries, but seem in particular acute in the Russian case. In addition, the regress in democratic development in Russia seems to have been a further impediment to the already difficult processes of organizational learning and reform. The study is motivated by a conviction that an analysis of the Russian decision making in relation to these events should be of interest, both to better understand past events of great importance, and to provide insights for preparations against potential similar events in other countries. The study should also be of relevance to current debates about possible future joint Russian-Western handling of terrorist incidents. The NATO-Russia Council’s NATO-Russia Action Plan on Terrorism explicitly states both that the parties should “exchange information and compare lessons learned from responses to terrorist attacks”, and that they are “determined to improve the capability of our armed forces to work together in combating the terrorist threat”.