The Impact of Advances in Science & Technology on CBRN Defence Towards 2030 – NATO Science & Technology Organization Long-Term Scientific Study Conclusions

This report summarizes the most important findings from the NATO Science & Technology Organization (STO) Long-Term Scientific Study (LTSS) on CBRN Defence, TR-HFM-273, conducted and chaired by Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI) in the period 2016-2020 and published in June 2021. Eleven countries participated in the study. The aim of the LTSS was to explore the current and future Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) threats and hazards towards 2030, to understand how they will be shaped by the impact and opportunities of existing and emerging scientific and technological advances. The LTSS is a research-based study with focus on the opportunities of ongoing and future scientific research in strengthening the CBRN defence of the Alliance. The LTSS endeavours to understand how the rapid advances in Science and Technology (S&T) can be used to address CBRN challenges and strengthen CBRN defence to create future capabilities and improve existing capabilities towards 2030. Extensive global and scientific advances as well as technological megatrends like digitalization, miniaturization, wearable technology, the internet-of-things, nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, autonomy, automation, robotics, big data and synthetic biology contribute to an evolving and more complex CBRN threat spectrum for the Alliance, and consequently change the requirements for an efficient CBRN defence. At the same time, the security environment has dramatically worsened. The CBRN threat and hazard is increasingly diverse, challenging the detection systems, physical protection, hazard management and medical countermeasures of the Alliance. However, the extensive and rapid advances in S&T and the convergence between some of the research fields generates both new threats, but also opportunities to gradually and continuously counter threats by improving CBRN defence capabilities and overall defence capabilities. The study points out the need for continuous research-based knowledge to obtain such capabilities. CBRN Defence must be viewed as a system of linked and interacting components within the overall defence system. Future capability development for CBRN defence needs to be an integrated part of defence planning and overall capability development and should be considered within the total defence concept (example Norway). Future capability development will require an interdisciplinary scientific approach and understanding of how technology development can improve or create new defence capabilities. This is exemplified by the Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) detailed in the NATO STO Science & Technology Trends 2020-2040 report. These technologies are included in the LTSS assessment of disruptive technologies in strengthening the CBRN defence of the Alliance.