Security implications of climate change in the Arctic

The melting of the polar ice cap is opening previously inaccessible parts of the Arctic region to resource extraction and marine transportation. If the retreat of the Arctic sea ice continues at its current pace, ice conditions on the northern coasts of Russia and Canada may at some point allow for near year-round shipping through the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Simultaneously, commercially important fish stocks such as cod and capelin are gradually moving north, due to increasing water temperatures. And, perhaps most importantly, technologies are being developed for the utilization of petroleum resources on the Arctic continental shelf, which holds an estimated 31 percent of the world’s undiscovered reserves of natural gas, and 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered reserves of oil. As a result of these developments, the Arctic is emerging as a region of major geopolitical significance to the five Arctic coastal states – Russia, the United States, Canada, Denmark, and Norway – as well as to other Arctic and non-Arctic states. Previously non-pressing disputes over access to natural resources and strategic shipping lanes are gradually coming to the surface, raising concerns about a possible “remilitarization” of the region. This report sheds light on these issues and discusses possible long-term security implications of the process of climate change in the Arctic. To what extent, and how, will increasing water temperatures and sea ice melting affect the nature of interstate relations in the region, the Arctic conflict potential, and the orientation of national security strategies in the decades to come? And what can Arctic rim states do to prevent the “worst case” scenario – a destabilization of the region – from materializing?