Regime crackdown in Syria (2011–2017) – unpacking violence against civilians

This report sets out to explore and explain the overwhelming violence against civilians in Syria carried out by the regime and its allies from the beginning of the uprisings in 2011 until the end of 2017. The report employs the scenario-based framework developed by the Norwegian Defense Research Establishment (FFI) in trying to better understand the type of threats civilians in Syria have been subject to at different times and in different places throughout the armed conflict. The report finds that violence against civilians in Syria can be divided into five phases, each representing an escalation in the regime’s violence, and each portraying qualitative differences in the ways in which civilians have been targeted. It concludes that the regime’s overarching motivation for targeting civilians throughout the conflict has been its own survival. Simultaneously, it shows how a number of overlapping motivations and a diversification of threats seem to have guided the regime’s targeting of civilians. Military necessity drove the regime’s escalation of violence against civilians, as failed attempts at defeating the opposition led to increasingly more destructive strategies and tactics. These findings can help make sense of the regime’s seemingly mindless violence against civilians in Syria, ultimately providing insights on what could have been done to better protect them: The first phase of the conflict (March 2011–December 2011) was primarily characterized by the regime’s violent efforts to repress the Syrian protests in order to remain in power. The regime’s security apparatus shot directly at protesters and funeral processions, undertook hundreds of arrests, and embarked on a number of targeted operations in efforts to suppress and contain the unrest. The second phase (January 2012–June 2012) represented an escalation as well as a diversification of the regime’s violence through the introduction of heavy weaponry and larger military operations. The regime continued to violently crack down on civilians to remain in power, but regime security forces also exploited the civilian population for their own profit, especially in the aftermath of military operations. Massacres aiming to expel certain parts of the population from particular areas were increasingly part of its approach. The third phase (July 2012–July 2013) witnessed the regime’s turn to airpower, allowing it to attack opposition-controlled areas of the country outside the reach of its ground forces. The period also saw the introduction of deliberate attacks against hospitals, markets, bakeries and schools. The fourth phase (August 2013–August 2015) introduced the use of chemical weapons into the conflict. The period also saw the complete destruction of Sunni neighborhoods in Homs, reflecting the regime’s broader efforts to destroy and forcibly displace civilians in opposition-held areas. The fifth phase (September 2015–December 2017) began with the Russian intervention into the conflict that led to intensified attacks on opposition-held areas and an escalation of the regime’s siege tactic.