Conscription in the new Russian Army

Russia is implementing the most comprehensive reforms of its Armed Forces since the 1920s – ”the Serdiukov reforms”. The aim of the modernisation is to make Russia better able to deal with current threats. Conscription will be maintained, at the same time as important parts of the Armed Forces will be manned by enlisted personnel. The service period has been reduced to twelve months, but the exemption regime has become stricter. The new conscription model is a compromise between the generals, who have wanted to retain conscription, and the politicians and the Russian public, who have been in favour of a fully professional force. The conscription system is under pressure. The number of draftable 18-year-olds will decrease till 2017. The conscripts’ health has been deteriorating in post-Soviet times, and there is little to indicate improvement. The system is further undermined by widespread corruption. Those who are drafted are in many ways more deprived than the national average of young men. Contingents of conscripts in the years ahead will be considerably smaller than in 2009, when 575,000 were drafted, the largest number in fifteen years. The reserve of older conscripts will soon be spent. Unless there is a return to a longer service period, which would be contrary to official assurances, it seems improbable that Russia will be able to maintain an army of one million, which is the ambition of the Serdiukov reforms. There is little to suggest that the decrease in the numbers of conscripts can be compensated by enlisted personnel. Conscription is likely to be upheld at any rate, primarily because abolishment would drastically reduce the possibilities of recruiting professionals. But the number of conscripts in the Russian Army is likely to be notably smaller than today, tentatively 200,000–300,000 in the longer term. The attitudes of Russians towards the Armed Forces and military service seem to have improved the last couple of years. However, the attitudes are distinctly more negative among those who are affected by conscription through close relatives and among the conscripts themselves. The most important measure to reduce resentment towards military service and improve motivation among conscripts would be a comprehensive and targeted policy to reduce hazing. The soldiers’ motivation is crucial to the value of the conscript part of the Armed Forces.