A future Nordic alliance? – prerequisites and possible operations

This report argues against the conventional wisdom that Nordic security and defense cooperation is destined to fail. That belief comes from deep historical knowledge of the history of Nordic attempts to establish such cooperation – the inside perspective. The report demonstrates, however, that Nordic security and defense cooperation, including joint Nordic military operations, is both feasible and desirable. The inside perspective, of course, contributes valuable knowledge of the Nordic region, Nordic defense policies and the militaries of the countries. By using social science theories about the relevant general categories, the report, however, concludes that far-reaching Nordic cooperation is the norm rather than the exception. This is the outside perspective – utilizing general categories such as small states as units and a multipolar security complex as context to understand the situation of Finland, Norway, Sweden and Denmark. The analysis first establishes a baseline for the expected generic outcomes. Then the report moves on to ask whether there are any special Nordic features, historical or cultural, that modify that baseline. Finally, based on all the evidence, the report is able to conclude that future defense cooperation, including future joint military operations, is both possible and indeed likely. Historically, NATO membership has been a competing alternative to any Nordic solution. The report demonstrates how a formal alliance matters less today and security interests that are in alignment matter more, for joint military action. A corollary is that a future Nordic alliance may take on different roles. Such an alliance may be an alternative to counter threats that are too small for NATO but too large for Norway to handle on its own. It may constitute the core in an alliance of members and non-members such as Sweden and Finland. And it may constitute the first line of defense in an article 5 situation. Nordic defense cooperation over procurement, motivated by economic concerns, may represent a path towards political cooperation resulting in joint military action. The report again utilizes a combination of inside and outside perspectives to analyze the possibilities of NORDEFCO cooperation to promote defense integration between the Nordic countries. A reservation concerning the conclusion is that it does not yet cover situations in which the Nordic countries are forced by economic restrictions to choose either to abandon weapon systems in their entirety or to operate together with others. To illustrate the scope for future Nordic operations, three scenarios have been developed. The first is a situation in which Russia exercises coercive diplomacy towards Norway; the second situation involving a limited fait accompli; and, the third and final, a large Russian attack on three Nordic countries, albeit for limited objectives. The scenarios were originally part of this report, but it was decided that it was more user-friendly to publish them as a separate report.